Tuesday, August 22, 2006
Is Mexico Nearing an Election Resolution?
With Deadline Approaching, Runner-up Remains Defiant
John M. Ackerman
Professor, Institute for Legal Research, National Autonomous University of Mexico
Wednesday, August 9, 2006; 12:00 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2006/08/08/DI2006080800873_pf.html
John Ackerman, a professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico's Institute for Legal Research, was online Wednesday, Aug. 9, at noon ET to discuss the impact of continuing protests in Mexico City in support of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and a refusal by Mexico's election tribunal to conduct a full vote recount.
Felipe Calderón has declared himself the winner of Mexico's July 2 presidential elections , despite his opponent's refusal to concede . For the past week, López Obrador has lived in a tent in Mexico City's Zocalo square along with tens of thousands of demonstrators. López Obrador has said he will not accept the results of a partial recount, even after a special election court rejected his request for a full recount. The court must declare a winner by Sept. 6.
Protests escalated as the partial recount was set to begin, with Mexican leftists blockading the offices of three major foreign-owned banks , and briefly taking over highway toll booths .
Ackerman has written for various publications, including the New York Times and Mexico's Reforma newspaper. He is a senior consultant to the World Bank and vice president of the International Association of Administrative Law. He is also coordinator of the Research Program on Accountability, Legality and the Rule of Law at the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences in Mexico City.
Read commentary by Ackerman in The San Diego Union-Tribune , The Houston Chronicle , and Revista Proceso (in Spanish)(pdf).
The transcript follows.
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Ceci Connolly: Welcome to today's live chat with John Ackerman, a legal scholar on Mexican politics. Before we open up the conversation to your questions, I'd like to thank John for joining us and ask you: Does the partial recount beginning today in Mexico suggest the end is near for Andrés Manuel López Obrador?
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John Ackerman: The partial recount the Tribunal called for on Saturday is indeed very bad news for López Obrador. Although the Tribunal could theoretically still call for a full recount later and this would be entirely legal, the arguments which the justices offered on Saturday would make this extremely difficult.
This is highly problematic because if serious irregularities are discovered in the partial recount there will be increased social demands for a full recount. But, in this case, pretty much the only option the justices have left for themselves is to "annul" or simply not declare the election valid and call for new elections.
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Mexico City, Mexico: Mr. Ackerman: the Mexican government and it's electoral institutions have failed to make this election a democratically solid and reliable process. Now the answer from the left is also barely legal, and illegal in some cases. From your point of view, Is there any way that future actions from the government and from the opposition could allow Mexican people to recover (if there ever was any) the trust and belief in the electoral process and it's public institutions?
John Ackerman: Really the best solution is a full recount. This is not at all a radical demand being made by López Obrador. It is basic common sense in an election which is as close as this one. The Electoral Tribunal would be entirely within its legal jurisdiction to call for such a full recount and this is really the only way to reconstruct faith in Mexico's electoral institutions. Otherwise, a cloud of doubt will remain hanging over things and this will make things extremely difficult for Mexican politics.
The other option is a "citizen recount" after the election is over. This would not have legal standing, but if it confirmed the electoral authorities results it would greatly legitimate the election. On the other hand, if it came up with a different result, this could lead to serious political crisis. The best answer would be for the Tribunal to change its criteria and call for a full recount ASAP.
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West Orange, N.J.: An August 6 WP article states that López Obrador trails by about 240,000 votes or about 0.5% of the votes cast. It says nothing about any evidence of alleged fraud. Are there many districts were gross vote counts were suspiciously high or low? In the PRI era, ballots could be 95%+ (or maybe more than 100%, counting the dead) in favor of the official candidate. Did the first count of the 2006 ballot feature any overt signs of shenanigans? Are the odds high or low that a full recount would yield a materially different outcome?
washingtonpost.com: Mexican Runner-Up Remains Defiant
John Ackerman: The question of whether there was outright fraud or not is still up in the air. López Obrador has made some pretty important allegations and there are enough apparent irregularities in the vote count and in surrounding events (tell tale phone calls and e-mails between government officials and political operators) that there is a reasonable doubt with regard to the election results.
A full recount would clarify things once and for all and calm down the political situation significantly.
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Ceci Connolly: For those interested in the recount process which began this morning, here's an excellent overview from El Universal. http://www.mexiconews.com.mx/19756.html
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Bethesda, Md.: As someone who used to live in Mexico City, but doesn't have first-hand experience of recent events, I'd like to know a couple of things about the protests by AMLO supporters: Is there a different mood among the protestors than there was after Cardenas' contested defeat in the late 1980's? Do some AMLO voters believe he should accept the official results, or do all of them want to fight on? What stretch of Reforma does the encampment cover -- from the Angel to the Zocalo? More? Less? And are the people in the encampment mostly being cheered on, or booed, by encampment neighbors and passersby? Thanks.
John Ackerman: Thanks for your questions. I wasn't here in 1988, but from what people have told me there is much more hope now among the AMLO supporters than in 1988 that they might actually be successful this time. People consistently state that now they have a "real" leader who is organizing resistance, not like Cardenas who supposedly left the movement hanging in 1988.
The encampment goes far beyond the Angel, all the way to the Fuente de Petroleos in the exclusive Lomas section of town. They are both booed and cheered, depending on what section of Reforma you are on.
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Guadalajara, Mexico: You make the statement that: "a Felipe Calderón presidency will hold a weak hand in dealing with the Mexican Congress, where his party only has a minority." Wouldn't this be equally true if López Obrador was declared president of Mexico? While López Obrador calls for a full recount, is it not true that he only petitioned the TRIFE for a full recount in only a few areas of the country?
John Ackerman: Yes, of course. Either way, the incoming president will have to conduct major political negotiations with Congress.
The López Obrador challenge to the election has two prongs to it. On the one hand, he challenged tens of thousands of particular voting booths. On the other hand, he has challenged the election as a whole, calling for a full recount to clear up any and all doubts.
On Saturday the Tribunal threw out the general challenge as a reason to conduct a full recount (although these arguments still could be used later to annul the election as a whole). The Tribunal decided to follow an extremely limited, strict interpretation of the law and only review Obrador's challenges of specific voting booths.
This itself was a political (although legal) decision on the part of the Tribunal. They could have easily called for a full recount based on AMLO's more general claims.
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Cancun, Mexico: Greg Palast has been putting out a series of what I consider very poorly researched articles on the Mexican election. In his latest he finally acknowledges the clarity of the ballots themselves and the fact that they were filled out and counted manually. He continues to harp on why the million (actually around 820,000) null votes are not being counted. I don't believe that this was one of demands in the PRD's legal brief, which according to what I've read was deficient in more than one technical aspect. Could you explain this and also brief us on what exactly the PRD asked for in its complaint with the electoral court? I'd also like to know your opinion on charges by columnist Carlos Ramirez that many protestors are being paid by Mexico City construction companies, who he writes are also financially supporting the demonstrations in other ways in return for promises by the PRD that they will get building contracts.
John Ackerman: One of the arguments the PRD did offer for the full recount is the high number of null votes and evidence from the partial recounts that have been conducted that many of these were actually for López Obrador. This is part of the second prong of the challenge which puts into question the election as a whole and calls for a full recount.
I haven't seen Carlos Ramirez's charges, but this sounds extremely unlikely.
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Queretaro, Mexico: 1. Isn't it unfair to compare the 1988 elections to today's situation? After all, in 1988, the IFE did not exist and votes were counted by the Secretaría de Gobernación. 2. Why is it important that Calderón accept a full recount? This decision is not made based on political negotiation, but by the Electoral Tribunal. 3. Isn't it true that the questionable practices that López Obrador provided evidence for are the basis for the partial recount ordered by the court of those voting places? What evidence is there that there was fraud in the rest of them?
John Ackerman: Good questions. The institutional conditions are indeed very different between 1988 and 2006, and this should have assured an un questionable election. Unfortunately, the present IFE councilors were not appointed by consensus (the PRD was excluded) and they have been less than entirely free of suspicion in the way they have acted.
And if they decide to burn the ballots after the electoral process is over in order to prevent citizens from conducting their own recount we will be right back in 1988.
Calderón is the one who would gain the most from a full recount. This is perhaps the only way he will be able to come in with significant legitimacy to manage Mexico's government.
Once again, you don't have to accept the accusations of fraud to support the idea of a full recount. The full recount is needed precisely so that we can see whether there was fraud or not. The central issue is the transparency of the election.
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Marquette, Mich.: López Obrador has refused to label himself a populist, but to what extent do he and his supporters fit into the growing movement across Latin America that has seen the election of presidential candidates such as Chavez and Morales?
John Ackerman: The support for López Obrador is definitely parallel to the support for other leftist presidents throughout Latin America (not just Chavez and Morales, but also Vasquez, Lula, Bachelet and Kirchner) in so far as it reflects widespread frustration with the failure of the economic reforms of the past two decades.
But López Obrador is an extremely pragmatic politician. The fact that he believes in the welfare state and things that U.S. citizens take for granted like unemployment insurance and public education does not make him a "danger" for the U.S. or Mexico. Indeed, such policies may be exactly what Mexico needs to stop the tide of emigration to the United States.
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Marquette, Mich.: If Calderón is declared the winner, does he plan to continue the existing neoliberal policies? And if López Obrador wins, do you imagine a sharp departure from Mexico's current economic policies (specifically in relation to the United States)?
John Ackerman: Calderón has expressed a clear message of continuity with Fox's policies. He will continue along the same line.
López Obrador would not make a radical break and is not at all "anti-U.S.". He is just a pragmatist who believes in the importance of social justice. No radical break, but definitely important changes.
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Elma, N.Y.: Does López Obrador have sufficient evidence of miscounted votes to call into question the close election victory of his opponent? And is the evidence strong enough to challenge the fairness of the election laws which significantly restrict when you can call for a recount?
John Ackerman: I think so. There is a reasonable doubt about the election results. Enough to justify a full recount. The Mexican constitution, electoral law and the court's jurisprudence would all permit such an action. It is simply incorrect to say that a full recount would be illegal.
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Washington, D.C.: Does the inability of protesters to create hysteria, if that's the case, basically mean a resolution is approaching? Is their a point when the PRD controlled Mexico City tell Obrador to pack up his tent and go home?
John Ackerman: These next few days will be absolutely crucial. The partial recount began today and must finish before this Sunday. I doubt the Mexico City government will step in, but the federal government has been threatening to do so.
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Oaxaca, Mexico: The city of Oaxaca de Juarez is under the control of a group demanding the removal of the governor of Oaxaca state. They also control the state television and radio stations and many government offices. Do you see a tie-in between this movement and AMLO's? What possibility do you see for a general uprising of the poor in Mexico?
John Ackerman: Don't see any direct connection between the situation in Oaxaca and AMLO, although both situations reveal the failings of the present governments (state and federal) to satisfy the basic demands of the poor.
Don't think there will be anything like a "revolution", but discontent may indeed spread if the economy doesn't start to pick up.
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Greeley, Colo.: The democratic formula is 50 % + 1. In the Mexican presidential elections, None of the candidates reached that percentage. How can they even discuss who the winner of the election is when there are no clear indications how they can govern. Shouldn't they form a coalition with other political parties-forces in order to govern?
John Ackerman: Yes. This whole situation reveals the urgent need to reform the electoral and state structures in Mexico. The country definitely needs run-off elections as well as possibly a move towards a pseudo-parliamentary form of government.
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Tucson, Ariz.: How would an upset by López Obrador affect foreign-owned property in Mexico? Would he try to create a "Mexico for Mexicans" kind of country where property was repossessed by the state?
John Ackerman: No. Not at all. He is definitely in favor of foreign investment and the free market. His top economic adviser, Rogelio Ramírez de la O., is a serious, pragmatic guy. No worries here.
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Pedro, Chihuahua, Mexico: Do you expect serious irregularities to be found in the recount?
John Ackerman: It is quite likely that the margin between Calderón and AMLO will become much smaller.
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Burke, Va.: What is your prediction of what will happen if the partial recount is held and there is no change?
John Ackerman: Calderón would be quickly and quietly confirmed by the Electoral Tribunal and AMLO would try to lead a nationwide social movement against neoliberalism.
Hopefully, the IFE would also allow the "citizen recount" to take place. This would help allot to shed light on the election and calm the political situation.
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Oaxaca, Mexico: Thank you for this discussion. What is your opinion of the involvement of Elba Esther Gordillo in the electoral process? Have you seen the allegations that she diverted educational funds for pro PAN campaigning?
John Ackerman: Very worrisome. Elba Ester Gordillo's (old guard PRIsta union leader) participation is the dark side of the Calderón campaign. If there were serious irregularities they most likely can be attributed to her.
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New York, N.Y.: Professor Ackerman, The Fox administration had a difficult time passing structural reforms in a divided congress. Regardless of the winner, do you expect the narrow margin to erode an already weak presidential mandate?
John Ackerman: Definitely.
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Tucson, Ariz.: I understand from friends in Sonora, the north Mexican state south of Arizona, that the same U.S. political group which was instrumental in gaining the election of Bush through various shenanigans, lost votes, uncounted votes, shortages of ballots, etc was also involved in Calderon's win. Is this true?
John Ackerman: I have heard this as well, but don't have any solid sources. All the more reason for a full recount, so as to make sure this didn't happen.
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Takoma Park, Md.: On July 3, the IFE said that it had counted 99% of the vote. On July 4, it admitted that it had been unable to include 2.5 million votes (roughly 6%). Is there an innocent explanation for this? I sure can't think of one.
John Ackerman: Well, supposedly the parties all new about the "archivo de inconsistencias", but the IFE should have announced this publicly. The fact that they didn't and falsely declared that 99% of the votes had been counted definitely created widespread suspicion.
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Mexico: Professor Ackerman, I'm studying here in Mexico City. It seems to me that AMLO is the victim of a stolen election. It's obvious that his opponents didn't want him to run and tried T prevent it. Then they tried to link him with Hugo Chavez. This "leftist" as the American press refers to him has massive popular support. Most news sources here are slanted to the right and only seem to report on how disruptive the protest is. If the election is handed to Calderón, I think a revolution is quite possible. Do you agree?
John Ackerman: Definitely don't think a revolution will occur, but if the Tribunal simply rubber stamps the IFE results Calderón will definitely have an extremely difficult time governing.
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Berlin, Germany: Isn't a complete recount in either way inevitable? In case the outcome doesn't change and Calderón is declared winner AMLO probably won't simply give in but raise pressure on the streets until a full recount will be held. On the other hand, if Calderón will loose the partial recount wouldn't it be logical for him to call for a complete recount?
John Ackerman: A full recount would definitely be in the interests of both candidates and for Mexico as a whole. As you point out, if Calderón turned out to come out behind after this partial recount he would be the first to call for an expansion of the recount!
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West Orange, N.J.: Assuming that a full recount yields a variance in the total tally greater than the spread between the candidates, aren't both likely to call for new elections? Would this be a two-way run-off? Who would benefit most from votes won by PRI in the original ballot? To what extend are blank or mutilated ballots a factor? Does Mexico's congress have the power to pick a winner in a disputed contest?
John Ackerman: A new election is a very possible scenario. This would not be a two-way run-off, but a competition between all parties if they offered candidates (unless of course electoral law were reformed in the meantime).
There are indeed lots of null votes in this election. Enough to make the difference if a recount were conducted.
The Mexican Congress has no power over the elections. Although if the election were thrown out it would be responsible for naming an interim president.
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Atlanta, Ga.: One of the points made by the Electoral Tribunal judges in explaining their Saturday ruling on the partial recount is that in the vast majority of polling stations they ordered recounted, the main problem was that the number of recorded votes exceeded the number of recorded voters. The judges then further clarified that the polling officials from IFE had all the authority they needed to recount when there was such clear evidence of simple arithmetic errors. In a tense situation which depends so heavily on trust by parties and voters, why do you think the IFE so clearly (in the view of the judges) fell down on the job by refusing to recount in those thousands and thousands of stations? Did they not realize that by not recounting where there were obvious, obvious errors that they would sow distrust?
John Ackerman: Yes, this was a major mistake of the IFE and did sow wider suspicion about their behavior.
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Ceci Connolly: I'd like to thank John Ackerman for giving us an hour of his valuable time today. We apologize that not every question could be answered. For more on this never-ending election, tune in to Campaign Conexion http://blog.washingtonpost.com/mexicovotes/. Thanks again!
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John M. Ackerman
Professor, Institute for Legal Research, National Autonomous University of Mexico
Wednesday, August 9, 2006; 12:00 PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/discussion/2006/08/08/DI2006080800873_pf.html
John Ackerman, a professor at the National Autonomous University of Mexico's Institute for Legal Research, was online Wednesday, Aug. 9, at noon ET to discuss the impact of continuing protests in Mexico City in support of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and a refusal by Mexico's election tribunal to conduct a full vote recount.
Felipe Calderón has declared himself the winner of Mexico's July 2 presidential elections , despite his opponent's refusal to concede . For the past week, López Obrador has lived in a tent in Mexico City's Zocalo square along with tens of thousands of demonstrators. López Obrador has said he will not accept the results of a partial recount, even after a special election court rejected his request for a full recount. The court must declare a winner by Sept. 6.
Protests escalated as the partial recount was set to begin, with Mexican leftists blockading the offices of three major foreign-owned banks , and briefly taking over highway toll booths .
Ackerman has written for various publications, including the New York Times and Mexico's Reforma newspaper. He is a senior consultant to the World Bank and vice president of the International Association of Administrative Law. He is also coordinator of the Research Program on Accountability, Legality and the Rule of Law at the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences in Mexico City.
Read commentary by Ackerman in The San Diego Union-Tribune , The Houston Chronicle , and Revista Proceso (in Spanish)(pdf).
The transcript follows.
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Ceci Connolly: Welcome to today's live chat with John Ackerman, a legal scholar on Mexican politics. Before we open up the conversation to your questions, I'd like to thank John for joining us and ask you: Does the partial recount beginning today in Mexico suggest the end is near for Andrés Manuel López Obrador?
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John Ackerman: The partial recount the Tribunal called for on Saturday is indeed very bad news for López Obrador. Although the Tribunal could theoretically still call for a full recount later and this would be entirely legal, the arguments which the justices offered on Saturday would make this extremely difficult.
This is highly problematic because if serious irregularities are discovered in the partial recount there will be increased social demands for a full recount. But, in this case, pretty much the only option the justices have left for themselves is to "annul" or simply not declare the election valid and call for new elections.
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Mexico City, Mexico: Mr. Ackerman: the Mexican government and it's electoral institutions have failed to make this election a democratically solid and reliable process. Now the answer from the left is also barely legal, and illegal in some cases. From your point of view, Is there any way that future actions from the government and from the opposition could allow Mexican people to recover (if there ever was any) the trust and belief in the electoral process and it's public institutions?
John Ackerman: Really the best solution is a full recount. This is not at all a radical demand being made by López Obrador. It is basic common sense in an election which is as close as this one. The Electoral Tribunal would be entirely within its legal jurisdiction to call for such a full recount and this is really the only way to reconstruct faith in Mexico's electoral institutions. Otherwise, a cloud of doubt will remain hanging over things and this will make things extremely difficult for Mexican politics.
The other option is a "citizen recount" after the election is over. This would not have legal standing, but if it confirmed the electoral authorities results it would greatly legitimate the election. On the other hand, if it came up with a different result, this could lead to serious political crisis. The best answer would be for the Tribunal to change its criteria and call for a full recount ASAP.
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West Orange, N.J.: An August 6 WP article states that López Obrador trails by about 240,000 votes or about 0.5% of the votes cast. It says nothing about any evidence of alleged fraud. Are there many districts were gross vote counts were suspiciously high or low? In the PRI era, ballots could be 95%+ (or maybe more than 100%, counting the dead) in favor of the official candidate. Did the first count of the 2006 ballot feature any overt signs of shenanigans? Are the odds high or low that a full recount would yield a materially different outcome?
washingtonpost.com: Mexican Runner-Up Remains Defiant
John Ackerman: The question of whether there was outright fraud or not is still up in the air. López Obrador has made some pretty important allegations and there are enough apparent irregularities in the vote count and in surrounding events (tell tale phone calls and e-mails between government officials and political operators) that there is a reasonable doubt with regard to the election results.
A full recount would clarify things once and for all and calm down the political situation significantly.
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Ceci Connolly: For those interested in the recount process which began this morning, here's an excellent overview from El Universal. http://www.mexiconews.com.mx/19756.html
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Bethesda, Md.: As someone who used to live in Mexico City, but doesn't have first-hand experience of recent events, I'd like to know a couple of things about the protests by AMLO supporters: Is there a different mood among the protestors than there was after Cardenas' contested defeat in the late 1980's? Do some AMLO voters believe he should accept the official results, or do all of them want to fight on? What stretch of Reforma does the encampment cover -- from the Angel to the Zocalo? More? Less? And are the people in the encampment mostly being cheered on, or booed, by encampment neighbors and passersby? Thanks.
John Ackerman: Thanks for your questions. I wasn't here in 1988, but from what people have told me there is much more hope now among the AMLO supporters than in 1988 that they might actually be successful this time. People consistently state that now they have a "real" leader who is organizing resistance, not like Cardenas who supposedly left the movement hanging in 1988.
The encampment goes far beyond the Angel, all the way to the Fuente de Petroleos in the exclusive Lomas section of town. They are both booed and cheered, depending on what section of Reforma you are on.
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Guadalajara, Mexico: You make the statement that: "a Felipe Calderón presidency will hold a weak hand in dealing with the Mexican Congress, where his party only has a minority." Wouldn't this be equally true if López Obrador was declared president of Mexico? While López Obrador calls for a full recount, is it not true that he only petitioned the TRIFE for a full recount in only a few areas of the country?
John Ackerman: Yes, of course. Either way, the incoming president will have to conduct major political negotiations with Congress.
The López Obrador challenge to the election has two prongs to it. On the one hand, he challenged tens of thousands of particular voting booths. On the other hand, he has challenged the election as a whole, calling for a full recount to clear up any and all doubts.
On Saturday the Tribunal threw out the general challenge as a reason to conduct a full recount (although these arguments still could be used later to annul the election as a whole). The Tribunal decided to follow an extremely limited, strict interpretation of the law and only review Obrador's challenges of specific voting booths.
This itself was a political (although legal) decision on the part of the Tribunal. They could have easily called for a full recount based on AMLO's more general claims.
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Cancun, Mexico: Greg Palast has been putting out a series of what I consider very poorly researched articles on the Mexican election. In his latest he finally acknowledges the clarity of the ballots themselves and the fact that they were filled out and counted manually. He continues to harp on why the million (actually around 820,000) null votes are not being counted. I don't believe that this was one of demands in the PRD's legal brief, which according to what I've read was deficient in more than one technical aspect. Could you explain this and also brief us on what exactly the PRD asked for in its complaint with the electoral court? I'd also like to know your opinion on charges by columnist Carlos Ramirez that many protestors are being paid by Mexico City construction companies, who he writes are also financially supporting the demonstrations in other ways in return for promises by the PRD that they will get building contracts.
John Ackerman: One of the arguments the PRD did offer for the full recount is the high number of null votes and evidence from the partial recounts that have been conducted that many of these were actually for López Obrador. This is part of the second prong of the challenge which puts into question the election as a whole and calls for a full recount.
I haven't seen Carlos Ramirez's charges, but this sounds extremely unlikely.
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Queretaro, Mexico: 1. Isn't it unfair to compare the 1988 elections to today's situation? After all, in 1988, the IFE did not exist and votes were counted by the Secretaría de Gobernación. 2. Why is it important that Calderón accept a full recount? This decision is not made based on political negotiation, but by the Electoral Tribunal. 3. Isn't it true that the questionable practices that López Obrador provided evidence for are the basis for the partial recount ordered by the court of those voting places? What evidence is there that there was fraud in the rest of them?
John Ackerman: Good questions. The institutional conditions are indeed very different between 1988 and 2006, and this should have assured an un questionable election. Unfortunately, the present IFE councilors were not appointed by consensus (the PRD was excluded) and they have been less than entirely free of suspicion in the way they have acted.
And if they decide to burn the ballots after the electoral process is over in order to prevent citizens from conducting their own recount we will be right back in 1988.
Calderón is the one who would gain the most from a full recount. This is perhaps the only way he will be able to come in with significant legitimacy to manage Mexico's government.
Once again, you don't have to accept the accusations of fraud to support the idea of a full recount. The full recount is needed precisely so that we can see whether there was fraud or not. The central issue is the transparency of the election.
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Marquette, Mich.: López Obrador has refused to label himself a populist, but to what extent do he and his supporters fit into the growing movement across Latin America that has seen the election of presidential candidates such as Chavez and Morales?
John Ackerman: The support for López Obrador is definitely parallel to the support for other leftist presidents throughout Latin America (not just Chavez and Morales, but also Vasquez, Lula, Bachelet and Kirchner) in so far as it reflects widespread frustration with the failure of the economic reforms of the past two decades.
But López Obrador is an extremely pragmatic politician. The fact that he believes in the welfare state and things that U.S. citizens take for granted like unemployment insurance and public education does not make him a "danger" for the U.S. or Mexico. Indeed, such policies may be exactly what Mexico needs to stop the tide of emigration to the United States.
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Marquette, Mich.: If Calderón is declared the winner, does he plan to continue the existing neoliberal policies? And if López Obrador wins, do you imagine a sharp departure from Mexico's current economic policies (specifically in relation to the United States)?
John Ackerman: Calderón has expressed a clear message of continuity with Fox's policies. He will continue along the same line.
López Obrador would not make a radical break and is not at all "anti-U.S.". He is just a pragmatist who believes in the importance of social justice. No radical break, but definitely important changes.
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Elma, N.Y.: Does López Obrador have sufficient evidence of miscounted votes to call into question the close election victory of his opponent? And is the evidence strong enough to challenge the fairness of the election laws which significantly restrict when you can call for a recount?
John Ackerman: I think so. There is a reasonable doubt about the election results. Enough to justify a full recount. The Mexican constitution, electoral law and the court's jurisprudence would all permit such an action. It is simply incorrect to say that a full recount would be illegal.
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Washington, D.C.: Does the inability of protesters to create hysteria, if that's the case, basically mean a resolution is approaching? Is their a point when the PRD controlled Mexico City tell Obrador to pack up his tent and go home?
John Ackerman: These next few days will be absolutely crucial. The partial recount began today and must finish before this Sunday. I doubt the Mexico City government will step in, but the federal government has been threatening to do so.
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Oaxaca, Mexico: The city of Oaxaca de Juarez is under the control of a group demanding the removal of the governor of Oaxaca state. They also control the state television and radio stations and many government offices. Do you see a tie-in between this movement and AMLO's? What possibility do you see for a general uprising of the poor in Mexico?
John Ackerman: Don't see any direct connection between the situation in Oaxaca and AMLO, although both situations reveal the failings of the present governments (state and federal) to satisfy the basic demands of the poor.
Don't think there will be anything like a "revolution", but discontent may indeed spread if the economy doesn't start to pick up.
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Greeley, Colo.: The democratic formula is 50 % + 1. In the Mexican presidential elections, None of the candidates reached that percentage. How can they even discuss who the winner of the election is when there are no clear indications how they can govern. Shouldn't they form a coalition with other political parties-forces in order to govern?
John Ackerman: Yes. This whole situation reveals the urgent need to reform the electoral and state structures in Mexico. The country definitely needs run-off elections as well as possibly a move towards a pseudo-parliamentary form of government.
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Tucson, Ariz.: How would an upset by López Obrador affect foreign-owned property in Mexico? Would he try to create a "Mexico for Mexicans" kind of country where property was repossessed by the state?
John Ackerman: No. Not at all. He is definitely in favor of foreign investment and the free market. His top economic adviser, Rogelio Ramírez de la O., is a serious, pragmatic guy. No worries here.
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Pedro, Chihuahua, Mexico: Do you expect serious irregularities to be found in the recount?
John Ackerman: It is quite likely that the margin between Calderón and AMLO will become much smaller.
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Burke, Va.: What is your prediction of what will happen if the partial recount is held and there is no change?
John Ackerman: Calderón would be quickly and quietly confirmed by the Electoral Tribunal and AMLO would try to lead a nationwide social movement against neoliberalism.
Hopefully, the IFE would also allow the "citizen recount" to take place. This would help allot to shed light on the election and calm the political situation.
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Oaxaca, Mexico: Thank you for this discussion. What is your opinion of the involvement of Elba Esther Gordillo in the electoral process? Have you seen the allegations that she diverted educational funds for pro PAN campaigning?
John Ackerman: Very worrisome. Elba Ester Gordillo's (old guard PRIsta union leader) participation is the dark side of the Calderón campaign. If there were serious irregularities they most likely can be attributed to her.
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New York, N.Y.: Professor Ackerman, The Fox administration had a difficult time passing structural reforms in a divided congress. Regardless of the winner, do you expect the narrow margin to erode an already weak presidential mandate?
John Ackerman: Definitely.
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Tucson, Ariz.: I understand from friends in Sonora, the north Mexican state south of Arizona, that the same U.S. political group which was instrumental in gaining the election of Bush through various shenanigans, lost votes, uncounted votes, shortages of ballots, etc was also involved in Calderon's win. Is this true?
John Ackerman: I have heard this as well, but don't have any solid sources. All the more reason for a full recount, so as to make sure this didn't happen.
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Takoma Park, Md.: On July 3, the IFE said that it had counted 99% of the vote. On July 4, it admitted that it had been unable to include 2.5 million votes (roughly 6%). Is there an innocent explanation for this? I sure can't think of one.
John Ackerman: Well, supposedly the parties all new about the "archivo de inconsistencias", but the IFE should have announced this publicly. The fact that they didn't and falsely declared that 99% of the votes had been counted definitely created widespread suspicion.
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Mexico: Professor Ackerman, I'm studying here in Mexico City. It seems to me that AMLO is the victim of a stolen election. It's obvious that his opponents didn't want him to run and tried T prevent it. Then they tried to link him with Hugo Chavez. This "leftist" as the American press refers to him has massive popular support. Most news sources here are slanted to the right and only seem to report on how disruptive the protest is. If the election is handed to Calderón, I think a revolution is quite possible. Do you agree?
John Ackerman: Definitely don't think a revolution will occur, but if the Tribunal simply rubber stamps the IFE results Calderón will definitely have an extremely difficult time governing.
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Berlin, Germany: Isn't a complete recount in either way inevitable? In case the outcome doesn't change and Calderón is declared winner AMLO probably won't simply give in but raise pressure on the streets until a full recount will be held. On the other hand, if Calderón will loose the partial recount wouldn't it be logical for him to call for a complete recount?
John Ackerman: A full recount would definitely be in the interests of both candidates and for Mexico as a whole. As you point out, if Calderón turned out to come out behind after this partial recount he would be the first to call for an expansion of the recount!
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West Orange, N.J.: Assuming that a full recount yields a variance in the total tally greater than the spread between the candidates, aren't both likely to call for new elections? Would this be a two-way run-off? Who would benefit most from votes won by PRI in the original ballot? To what extend are blank or mutilated ballots a factor? Does Mexico's congress have the power to pick a winner in a disputed contest?
John Ackerman: A new election is a very possible scenario. This would not be a two-way run-off, but a competition between all parties if they offered candidates (unless of course electoral law were reformed in the meantime).
There are indeed lots of null votes in this election. Enough to make the difference if a recount were conducted.
The Mexican Congress has no power over the elections. Although if the election were thrown out it would be responsible for naming an interim president.
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Atlanta, Ga.: One of the points made by the Electoral Tribunal judges in explaining their Saturday ruling on the partial recount is that in the vast majority of polling stations they ordered recounted, the main problem was that the number of recorded votes exceeded the number of recorded voters. The judges then further clarified that the polling officials from IFE had all the authority they needed to recount when there was such clear evidence of simple arithmetic errors. In a tense situation which depends so heavily on trust by parties and voters, why do you think the IFE so clearly (in the view of the judges) fell down on the job by refusing to recount in those thousands and thousands of stations? Did they not realize that by not recounting where there were obvious, obvious errors that they would sow distrust?
John Ackerman: Yes, this was a major mistake of the IFE and did sow wider suspicion about their behavior.
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Ceci Connolly: I'd like to thank John Ackerman for giving us an hour of his valuable time today. We apologize that not every question could be answered. For more on this never-ending election, tune in to Campaign Conexion http://blog.washingtonpost.com/mexicovotes/. Thanks again!
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# posted by Nancy T. @ 8:11 PM 
