Mexico Hear The Voices of the Exterior

Mexico´s Political Dilemmas

By Fausto F. Ponte

Special to The DFallas Morning News




Editor´s note: Fausto Fernandez Ponte is a higly respected Mexican journalist who was

a Washington correspondent for the Mexico City daily Excelsior.





Mexico has now two Presidents. The Constitutional one -- thus named
President-Elect on Sept. 5th -- is Felipe Calderón, a conservative
lawyer linked to the political elite of moneyed and influential
businessmen and bankers, the Catholic Church, Wall Street, the energy
industry, and other assorted powerful interests. He has also been
linked to a violent rightwing group known as /El Yunque/ (/The Anvil/).

The other President -- the informal one, named Sept. 16 the
/Legitimate President/ by a massive meeting atended by more than a
million people in Mexico City´s main plaza, the historic Zocalo -- is
Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or AMLO, a political scientist whose main
theme is a set of proposals to lay the foundation for new State
institutions that would serve the interest of the 70 million Mexicans
living in poverty.

In spite of the Constitutional mantle, Mr. Calderón, however, does
not have the popular following that Mr. Lopez Obrador commands and
electrifies almost every evening with his colloquial speeches given from
his makeshift headquarters in Mexico City's Plaza of the Constitution.
He is protected by a thick, live wall of his followers. This human
wall is unarmed. And it is impossible to reach him.

But Mr. Calderon is also sorrounded by an even thicker human
fortress made up of Praetorian and well-armed guards known a
/Guardias Presidenciales/ (Presidential Guards). They answer only to
the President and not to the Defense Secretary, nominally the boss of
this elite and handsomely-paid military force in charge of the
President´s security. The Guards have been very busy lately for Mr.
Calderon is constantly accosted by Mr. Lopez Obrador followers every
day.

This dichotomy defines the current political crisis in Mexico and
its ever-increasing abyssal depth. Such a crisis is viewed by a very
large segment of Mexican society as a crisis of the State,
and of the power elite that has controlled it since the Carlos Salinas de
Gortari administration (1988-94). Mr. Salinas is a pragmatic
politician known for his cynicism and high profile as a
behind-the-scenes power or /facilitator,/ as he calls himself.

Mr. Salinas´ policies were epitomized by the North-American Free
Trade Agreement or NAFTA, which since its inception in 1994 has
dramatically increased economic inequality in Mexico as well as
social injustice. Its painful sequel is a
demonstrably spectacular emigration to the USA, fueled by growing
poverty, economic stratification, and lack of employment. Today
Mexican emigration is the main and most-contentious issue in the
bilateral relationship
between Washington and Mexico City. And it has a terrible social cost
in Mexico, mainly through the fracture and disintegration
of families. Children
grow up in a context of "anomia," which is the term used by Mexican
sociologists to describe a lack of correspondence between individuals
and the set of societal norms and rules. The net result is more
maladjusted youngsters and young adults, prone to conmit crimes.

In addition of the prevalent poverty, another clear indication of
the stagnation gripping the Mexican economy and society is the
deepening gulf between the "haves" and the "have nots".
Riches and income are highly concentrated in few people. The
acquisitive reach of income is scandalously low and getting lower.
The explosive and challenging component in this picture is awareness;
Many poor people are now aware of their poverty.

Rightly or not, those poor perceive Mr. Calderon
as the heir of those State policies perpetuating that
poverty. That makes a lot of citizens angry. It intensifies people´s
proclivity to feel resentment, discontent, and rage -- social rage.
These people feel prepared to go to the barricades to
fight for a change of Government and its policies, knowing that
Mexico´s constitutional framework (Article 39) acknowledges that
right.

This is a credible explanation of the current rage and outcry from
the bulk of Mr. Lopez Obrador´s followers and the intense activism of
the social and political organizations that support him. Those
organizations are busily proselytizing and building up a wide net for
logistical support. This way they reap more followers to feed the
massive mobilizations. There is a very fertile ground of anger and
desperation from this widespread awareness of what it is to be poor.

The plight of Mr. Lopez Obrador is based upon such constitutional
precept and thus it is a perfectly legal interstice. Against that, Mr
Calderón, the President-Elect, can do little, except to use force --
illegally, for Mr. Lopez Obrador and their millions of followers have
not broken any law. This stand off -- a proverbial Mexican stand off --
has no clear bifurcations or short cuts. On top of that, Mr. Calderon
has neither political insight nor crafty abilities in politics.

Meanwhile, Mr. Calderon sustains himself by his condition as
President-Elect, the long arm of the Office, and the controversial
and questioned legality of his elevation to Head of State. He romps
with the rich and powerful in Mexico and the USA, and avoids mixing
with the multitudes. It will take him several years of his administration
to create a political thesaurus. Mexico will be back to the old times
of Presidents that were not true leaders of the people.

Many Mexicans expect more domination of Mexico´s economy and energy assets by
USA multinational corporationss (in Mexico they are called transnationals) like
Halliburton, Wal-Mart, Citicorp, and others in the same
league; increased Mexican emigration mainly to California, Texas,
Arizona, New Mexico, but also to the Midwest. In the
aftermath of that it is predictable a reduced number of consumers of USA
goods and services in Mexico.